Selective recovery with significant downside risks in the tech industry

In the Swiss tech industry (comprising the mechanical, electrical and metal industries as well as related technology sectors), sales rose by +3.4% in the first quarter of 2026 relative to the prior-year period. This increase was driven almost entirely by large companies. SME sales, by contrast, fell by -1.8%. Order intake also increased, rising by 10.1% compared to the prior-year quarter. These figures are based on the Swissmem Index, which has been compiled on a quarterly basis for several years⁽¹⁾ . Capacity utilisation in companies reached 81.6%, meaning it has stabilised at a low level. However, this still remains below the long-term average of 85.6%. The number of employees in the tech industry stood at 324,200 during the first quarter of 2026, up +0.4% on the previous quarter. 

EU supports exports – US and Asia in decline

Goods exports in the Swiss tech industry increased by +1.1% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the prior-year period and reached a value of CHF 17 billion. Export performance varied significantly depending on the market region. The EU proved to be the main driver of export growth, with exports increasing by +3.9%. By contrast, exports to Asia (-4.5%) and the US (-4.2%) registered marked declines. A mixed pattern also emerged across the main product groups. Exports of measuring, checking and precision instruments (-4.4%) as well as machinery, mechanical appliances and mechanical devices (-3.9%) declined relative to the prior-year period. Strong growth was recorded in railway vehicles, road vehicles and aircraft (+28.4%), largely driven by individual large-scale orders. Higher exports were also recorded for electrical machinery, electrical appliances and other electrical goods (+4.1%) as well as for metals and articles of metal (+3.9%).  

A narrowly based recovery

“The slightly positive trend from the second half of 2025 has continued in the first quarter. This is encouraging,” comments Swissmem Director Stefan Brupbacher. “What is more, the key indicators point towards a continuation of this positive development.” For example, readings from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for industry are above the growth threshold in most regions worldwide. Companies within the tech industry are also cautiously optimistic: over the next 12 months, 36% expect orders from abroad to increase. A further 39% anticipate that order levels will remain unchanged. “The current picture is encouraging,” adds Stefan Brupbacher. However, the upward trend is not yet sufficiently broad-based and is driven by only a few companies and sub-sectors. Examples include industrial electrical engineering and energy solutions – primarily due to demand from data centres and AI applications as well as the aerospace sector. “This is a fine line. The downside risk is considerable.” Stefan Brupbacher identifies major risks as a renewed escalation in the Middle East, sharply rising energy costs, supply-chain bottlenecks, new US tariffs and EU protectionist measures (e.g. steel quotas or “Buy European” rules restricted to the EU). “They have the potential to bring the positive trend to a halt overnight.”

No additional burdens for the export industry

Setbacks are also possible domestically. “Unfortunately, I have the impression that policymakers have not yet recognised how fundamentally the global situation has changed,” says Swissmem Chairman Martin Hirzel. “Switzerland’s prosperity is based on a strong export economy. It is dependent on favourable framework conditions. Additional wage contributions to finance the 13th AHV pension would place an unnecessary burden on companies’ competitiveness. Instead, Parliament must swiftly adopt the free trade agreement with the Mercosur states and do so without unrelated additions such as any unnecessary linkage to the EU’s neo-colonial Regulation on Deforestation-free Products. And finally, the SVP’s ‘chaos initiative’ is the wrong approach. It must be rejected, as Switzerland’s openness is vital to the survival of its industry.”
 

^{[1] The Swissmem Index for sales and order intake in the Swiss tech industry is based on data drawn from around 250 reporting companies that is collected on a quarterly basis. These companies constitute a representative sample of the Swissmem membership base.} 

For further information please contact: 

Noé Blancpain, Member of Management and Head of Communications & Public Affairs
Tel. +41 44 384 48 65 / mobile +41 78 748 61 63
E-mail n.blancpainnoSpam@swissmem.ch 

Philippe Cordonier, Member of Management and Head of Swissmem Romandie
Tel. +41 44 384 42 30 / mobile +41 79 644 46 77
E-mail p.cordoniernoSpam@swissmem.ch